5 Key Trends for 2024 and beyond

1. Who Has the Power in Publishing?

Well, before we get into what’s new in publishing, it’s worth remembering that some things seem to always stay the same – and the list of power players of UK publishing is certainly one of them.

The Top 20 UK publishers by revenue remain dominated by the ‘Big Four’: Penguin Random House, Hachette, HarperCollins and Pan Macmillan. One of the big stories of 2022 was PRH’s attempt to consolidate further by buying Simon & Schuster being blocked by the US courts – still very much ‘watch this space’ story, with Simon & Schuster now owned by private equity firm KKR, expanding rapidly in the US, and perhaps poised to challenge the UK’s Big Four in the coming years.

Meanwhile, the Independent Alliance – not a single publisher, but a collective of eighteen from across the UK, founded by Faber & Faber – continue to grow rapidly year-on-year, sharing expertise and a distribution network to gain leverage and influence in UK publishing.

2. Britain vs the World: the Export Race

Did you know that more than half of the UK publishing industry’s income comes from selling books abroad?

Not only that, but the export market for British publishers is growing twice as fast as the British publishing industry as a whole. This is partly down to finding new markets to sell into – such as Mexico, where sales increased by 328% in a single year – and partly down to publishers pushing more into existing markets, most notably the USA and Europe.

Is it all good news though?

Agents, authors and foreign publishers are often wary of British publisher’s attempts to drive sales of their English-language books abroad: export editions usually pay a lower royalty rate to authors, and the wide availability of an English-language edition can impact opportunities for authors and foreign publishers to translate the work into new languages.

3. Romantasy Came from Nowhere – or Did It?

Barely more than eighteen months ago, there was hardly a reader in the world using the word ‘romantasy’ online.

What a difference just a couple of years can make – from a quick scroll on TikTok to the top of the Bestseller Charts, romantasy has become an unstoppable juggernaut. Combining fantasy and romance is hardly a new phenomenon (not that it was the first, but it’s worth pointing out that TWILIGHT is going to turn twenty next year!), but the new term romantasy has helped to unite a vibrant, diverse and creative collective of readers.

In response, publishers have found new ways to reach those readers: most notably through partnerships with Subscription Boxes, which have been a huge hit amongst romantasy readers in particular, providing beautiful and curated book packages – and rocketing books to the top of the charts while still being sold at (or even above) their recommended retail price: a far cry from the ‘race to the bottom’ seen in recent years, where rival retailers discount books as much as they can to compete with Amazon.

It’s certainly not hard to see why it feels like almost every editor wants a romantasy book on their list!

4. BookTok Is Here to Stay – or is it?

For years, “the app formerly known as Twitter” was at the heart of the book community online, and while its still the go-to for many publishers and agents, it is clear that TikTok, the new kid on the (tik)block is going from strength to strength.

To date, there have been over 34 million posts tagged with #BookTok, garnering billions of views between them and having a profound effect on the bestseller lists. What was most exciting about the early impact of BookTok was how unpredictable it could be, amplifying books from across the genre spectrum and looking beyond the latest, most-hyped new releases, plucking authors like Coleen Hoover and Adam Silvera out of obscurity, years after their books had first been publishing, and helping them go from selling thousands to millions of copies almost overnight.

However, it does look like publishers are starting to get savvier at using it as a platform for their new books, through a mix of acquiring books targeted at BookTok users and getting their books in the hands of the right influencers early, with new releases like Rebecca Yarros’ FOURTH WING, Gabrielle Zevin’s TOMORROW & TOMORROW & TOMORROW and Emily Henry’s FUNNY STORY quickly gaining traction on the app.

Will this frontlist-first approach dull the allure and spontaneity of BookTok though? And could the ongoing US legal challenge to TikTok’s ownership make it all disappear overnight?

5. The World of Audiobooks Has Turned Upside Down

And, finally, one of the great mysteries of the publishing world: what is going on in the world of audiobooks?

What we do know for certain is that over the past five years, audiobooks have been at the forefront of growth in UK publishing, consistently growing year on year far faster than print books – just last year, downloads rose by a staggering 17%. This year will further benefit from the boost of Spotify’s dive into the world of audiobooks, which began last October by offering Premium subscribers fifteen hours of audiobooks a month on top of their pre-existing music streaming service – creating for the first time a serious challenge to Amazon-owned Audible’s dominance in the digital audiobook market.

However, a lack of clarity over the terms of Spotify’s royalty payments has been widely criticized, including by the Society of Authors, and there new fears that the addition of audiobooks to Spotify may not only offer a poor return for authors, but dilute musicians’ earnings too. The full effect of Spotify’s intervention in the market, and its fallout, may yet take time to reveal itself.

With audiobooks more available than ever before though – whether through the retail outlets, streaming services, or the increasingly popular apps offered by libraries to access eBooks and audiobooks for free such as BorrowBox and Libby by Overdrive – and production quality on the rise, the potential of audiobooks remains massive and a brilliant boost to authors and readers.